The statement, which was made earlier in November, has led experts to examine which of the two countries holds stronger military experience and capability.
Political and security analysts, however, agree that an actual war between the two neighboring countries is highly unlikely. They say Museveni’s remarks were more political than military, and his comments should not be taken as a real threat.
According to political analyst Mark Bichachi, the best way to resolve such misunderstandings is through regional organizations.
“The East African Community is his solution,” Bichachi said, explaining that the EAC was established to promote peace and cooperation among member states.
He added that leaders should use existing diplomatic channels instead of public statements that might cause fear or confusion.
Experts have pointed out that Kenya’s military, known as the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), has greater experience and better equipment than Uganda’s army.
Kenya has taken part in major international and regional missions, including operations in Somalia under the African Union Mission (AMISOM), peacekeeping in South Sudan, and humanitarian missions in various parts of Africa.
These experiences have helped Kenya build a disciplined, well-trained, and modern force.
Uganda’s military, known as the Uganda People’s Defence Force (UPDF), is also experienced, especially in regional security operations.
Uganda has contributed troops to Somalia and South Sudan, and its forces have been involved in counter-terrorism efforts within the region.
However, analysts say the UPDF’s resources are more limited compared to Kenya’s, both in technology and logistics.
“Uganda’s military is strong for its size, but Kenya’s defense system is far more advanced,” said one regional security expert who spoke to the media.
“Kenya has modern aircraft, naval vessels, and a strong intelligence network that gives it an advantage in any external conflict.”
Even with these differences, analysts warn that both nations would lose greatly if they ever engaged in war.
Kenya and Uganda share deep economic, cultural, and security ties. They rely on each other for trade, electricity, transport, and cross-border business.
A conflict would damage economies on both sides and hurt millions of ordinary citizens who depend on regional stability.
Many Kenyans have shared their views online, dismissing the idea of war as unrealistic. Some reminded their leaders that peace is the only path that can guarantee growth for both countries.
“We are brothers and sisters. War should never be an option,” wrote one social media user.
Diplomatic experts also believe Museveni’s remarks might have been directed more at domestic politics than Kenya.
Uganda will hold a presidential election in January 2026, and some observers say the long-serving leader could be using bold language to rally his supporters.
“It may be political posturing meant to show strength rather than a real threat,” said a Nairobi-based political analyst.
The Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already downplayed Museveni’s statement, saying it was taken out of context.
Principal Secretary Dr. Korir Sing’Oei said Museveni was “speaking metaphorically” and that Kenya’s relationship with Uganda remains strong and friendly.
Both countries are currently working together on key projects like the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) extension to Uganda and a new expressway linking Kisumu and the border town of Busia.
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